I recently published an article on quitting when you’re ahead which may be found here. The article referred to a particular $100,000 royal flush I hit at Dotty’s and why circumstances at that establishment led me to quit gambling there for a few months after the jackpot. Some of the follow-up comments about the article were, to me, very strange and irrelevant. I wouldn’t call them stupid questions. I would call the questioners uninformed.
a. Are you going to post a picture of the jackpot? If not, how do we know you really hit it? No I’m not going to post a picture. Even if I did post a picture, someone could say, “How do we know it was actually you who hit it and not somebody else?” It was hardly my purpose to “prove” to anybody that I actually hit this jackpot. My purpose in the article was to illustrate an exception to my normal rule of “today’s score doesn’t matter.”
b. Are you ahead at Dotty’s lifetime? The answer to this is “Yes,” but I don’t see how this is particularly relevant to anybody else. My individual results have ups and down. I’m ahead at many casinos — sometimes by more than could be predicted simply by EV and sometimes by less. I’m behind at other casinos even though I’m playing a game where I believe I have the advantage.
It’s virtually never the case that I’m “spot on” with exactly the right number of royal flushes at a casino. When I’ve played enough to “deserve” 11.5058 royals at a particular place if everything happened exactly proportionately, but I’ve actually hit 9 or 14, that’s not valuable information to anybody else for deciding whether they should play.
There will always be people over-royaled and others under-royaled at any given casino, while at every other casino, the mix will be different. Nobody who plays a lot is over-royaled everywhere. Nobody who plays a lot is under-royaled everywhere. If you play a lot, you pretty much end up with what you deserve score-wise, factoring in your game choice (including promotions), skill level (including taking advantage of promotions), and alertness when you play.
c. If you quit there for four months, what will happen to your accumulated free play? I’ll go in and pick it up! Dotty’s is a casino that actually gives cash for your slot club benefits and weekly mailers. By quitting for four months, I’m just referring to playing my “usual” $50,000 coin-in a week — an amount I’ve chosen somewhat by calculation and somewhat by feel. (Perhaps I’ll discuss that decision at some other time.) If there are sizeable amounts of money to pick up, I’ll do it. I’m not boycotting the place. There are probably 10 Dotty’s within 10 miles of my house, so stopping by one of them wouldn’t be all that inconvenient. I’m simply avoiding playing “big money” there until conditions are better.
d. Is the money guaranteed? If not, everything is random and you’re just lucky! Well, I do believe the machines are fair (in Nevada, at least) and that over time things work out pretty much like they should. I’ve played probably 500,000 hands at various Dotty’s over the past several years and with their promotions (which do vary — but are reasonably consistent) I have an estimate of what I think my edge is. (I’m not interested in publishing that edge or discussing here how I determined it. You may choose to believe me or not. I don’t care.) I used Video Poker for Winners and determined that if someone competently played that many hands on that game with those promotions, that person would be ahead approximately 90% of the time.
I am on the “9-out-of-10” side — meaning I’m ahead. You could call that “lucky,” I suppose. I wouldn’t. I think of it more as “not unlucky.” A guarantee would be 10-out-of-10, and that’s clearly not the case here. Every hand I play on that game has a 1-in-43,456 chance of becoming a royal. Being up or down a cycle or two has some non-zero probability which may be calculated. I’ve been on both sides of the over-or-under equation. Over time, it comes out about right.
I do believe the games and machines in Nevada are random — but possibly what I mean by random is not what you mean by random. What I mean by random is that on each hand (both the deal and the draw), every unseen card has an equal chance of appearing next. If this is true, you can predict within certain confidence intervals exactly how often something will occur.
When certain other people speak of being random, often they mean “totally unpredictable.” I don’t think that’s the case at all.
e. If you were behind instead of ahead, would you quit? After all, if 9-out-of-10 people would be ahead and you’re not one of them, doesn’t that tell you you’re just not good enough or lucky enough? No. Being behind would tell me neither of those things. I’m basing my play-or-not-play decision on what I believe my edge is and whether or not my playing for these stakes can threaten my bankroll. How well I’ve done to date is not part of that decision.
What I have going for me that many players don’t is I’ve been gambling for “significant” stakes for more than 40 years. I trust the math. I trust the games. I trust my knowledge. I trust my discipline to only play while sober, well rested, within my bankroll, and not otherwise distracted. That experience gives me lots of confidence that things are going to work out okay.
Someone who is just starting out doesn’t have that wealth of experience/skill/discipline/confidence. Someone just starting out likely thinks of a $100,000 jackpot quite a bit differently than I do. I’ve had more than two thousand royal flushes through the years. This is just another of them, albeit bigger than average for me. If one royal flush is a life-changing experience, you’re playing for stakes that are much too high for you.
f. Do you have to play that big to have an advantage at Dotty’s? No, of course not. The NSU games can be found for single line dollars and up. The higher you play, within certain limits, the better your edge is percentage-wise because one of their promotions deals with how many W2Gs you get. Playing $120 per hand or more gives you W2Gs for straight flushes and higher. Playing $5 per hand only gives you W2Gs for royals. Playing $6 per hand gives you W2Gs for royals and deuces. Etc.
Good article. I play casually once a week or so at locals casinos. I always play Deuces Wild, because I like the game. I have never hit a Royal Flush in about 2-3 years, but I have hit around 5-6 four deuces for $ 250 on a quarter machine. My understanding is that a Royal normally will come along about every 5-7 four deuces (on average, of course this will vary). Can you confirm this? I should be due soon 🙂 As an aside, before I learned to play, I played quarters – since quarters, and hit my only Royal Flush on a redraw at the bar in Caesar’s with the steps near the entrance. This paid me 62.50 as I recall – as I had only played a single quarter. Live and learn. Good feedback that you gave on comments you got. I’m not worried about my play. I know that Royals and others will hit over time, you just have to play enough, and keep at it. Thanks.
Your “here” link didn’t work – where can I find the article “quitting while ahead” that you refer to?
I’ll get the link fixed. Right now I’m still learning how to use this software. In the meantime, this link should work https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2016/0412.cfm
There are a lot of different Deuces Wild pay schedules. Assuming you are playing correctly (and the fact that you sometimes play single quarters at the inferior games at Caesars makes me suspect you do not know basic strategy correctly nor do you limit yourself to only playing the best games), you will average about 10 sets of deuces for every royal.
At my free classes at the South Point, I’ll be teaching NSU Deuces Wild on Wednesday September 14
Though I have traveled to Las Vegas many times over the years, I’ve only managed to attend one of your classes. Have you ever thought about doing an online version, even for a fee? I do have the software, the books, and I practice, but I loved hearing you speak.
I really like your articles and the logic you employ regarding VP. But I do have one issue with the calculation of the edge. I to calculate the comps and perks when playing, but the fly in the ointment is the federal and state taxes I incur when I receive a W-2 G. I know you have considered and analyzed this tax burden, but I would like to see a column on the effect of taxes on our play. Assume max fed and max California rates. Thanks for a great article.
haha that is a good reply Bob. No, I don’t play single quarters anymore. That was about 8-10 years ago before I took any time to learn how to play. I believe I play a pretty good basic strategy now, but it is not perfect. And, I don’t limit myself to the best games. The irony of my first and only Royal at Caesar’s was that I did not know how to play at all then, played only one quarter, and played at an inferior game. Since learning how to play, and playing only 5 coins, I have never hit the royal – but I know the odds will get me there over time. Thanks for your reply on the 10 sets of deuces for every royal, and I will consider the class.
Thanks for the suggestion — but I’m not the guy for it. Max federal and max California rates might be where you want the article pegged, but I have readers in several states with lots of different tax situations. Plus I don’t pretend to be a tax expert.
maybe someday
@John
Federal and State taxes are something to consider when calculating your edge of course, but you shouldn’t be calculating based only on when you get a W-2G. You are obligated to pay taxes on all gambling winnings minus losses, not just when you get a W-2G. Bob is a professional and based on what I’ve read on here and heard on his podcast, he keeps records of his gambling wins and losses and calculates his income based on that, so the number of W-2Gs he is issued isn’t a factor. Should you factor in taxes when calculating whether something is an advantage play? Yes, but since that calculation needs to be across the board for all winnings, not just W-2G winnings, it should be a pretty simple calculation for you. I like Bob’s answer here because there are too many factors involved in each individual’s tax situation for Bob to cover it in a column like this.