I enjoy reading. I read both fiction and non-fiction — on a wide variety of subjects. Periodically I look at “Best Books of xxxx” lists to see if anything looks interesting. One such list included the novel Mata Hari’s Last Dance by Michelle Moran.
I vaguely remembered learning decades ago that Mata Hari was a seductress and a spy in World War I — but I didn’t know anything else about her. So, I ordered a copy from the library, figuring that if I couldn’t get into it in a few chapters, I didn’t have to finish it.
Mata Hari, the stage name of a Dutch woman named Margaretha Zelle MacLeod, was a dancer who, beginning in 1905, didn’t mind baring herself at a time when others didn’t do that. She also took several lovers over the years. To keep the mystique going, she regularly fabricated tales — especially to the press. Any novelist trying to get to the truth — and trusting contemporary accounts — was going to have to make some educated guesses as to the actual facts. In the end, nobody can be sure what the whole truth is — simply because there will always be conflicting accounts.
By the time the war started, Mata Hari was nearing 40 years of age and her career was eclipsed by imitators who were younger and better dancers. She made some mistakes and the French believed (probably erroneously) that she was a German spy. They executed her in late 1917. Whatever spying she did was amateurish at best. The novel presents her circumstances as tragic — although it was clear that she was unwittingly her own worst enemy at times.
Plus, since that’s the only book I’ve read about Mata Hari, most of my “knowledge” comes from that particular book and that author’s point of view. I’m assuming the book was fairly accurate (as historical fiction goes), but I don’t have a depth of knowledge to know for sure.
Although I enjoyed the novel and reading about an era I didn’t know much about, let’s bring this discussion to gambling.
Many video poker players only “know” either what they’ve heard from somebody else or they “know” things about which they’ve made some semi-educated guesses and stuck with. While it may be intuitively “obvious” to some that from K♠ K♥ 7♣ 7♦ 3♠ you hold the kings and not two pair, that play is usually incorrect. From K♥ T♥ 3♥ 7♣ 4♦, it may seem trivial that the best play is to hold exactly two cards (and it is sometimes), but there are games where holding no cards is better, other games where holding one card is the best, and still others where three cards is superior number to hold.
I am somebody who accepts that for most players most of the time, choosing the play with maximum expected value is the way to go. Virtually all long-term successful players use these strategies. There are theoreticians who devise special strategies which have different goals than max-EV, but I’ve never used such a strategy and do not intend to.
How do you figure out what the best max-EV strategy is? Simple. Use a computer program that provides you that information instantly. I sell such a program (Video Poker for Winners) but there are others on the market as well.
The computer program will tell you how to play one hand at a time. That’s fine, but there are 2.6 million different hands — or slightly more than 130,000 if you treat all suits as being equal. That is, if you consider 7♣ 7♦ A♦ 9♦ 4♦ to be “essentially identical” to 7♥ 7♠ A♠ 9♠ 4♠, then you’ve cut the possible number of hands to learn by a factor of about 20. Surprisingly to most novices, 7♥ 7♠ A♠ 9♠ 3♠ is considered to be a totally separate hand than the previous ones.
Exactly how to simplify these things into a usable strategy is a discussion we’ll leave for another day. Modern software products do this for you — some better than others. Various authors have done the heavy lifting for you and present usable strategies — and again, some better than others.
I teach classes for those who prefer to learn by listening rather than figuring things out by themselves. (Author’s note: The next semester of free video poker classes at the South Point will begin at noon Wednesday, January 25, at the South Point in the Silverado Lounge. See bobdancer.com for the complete class schedule.)
Back to the question of “how do I know this is the right way to go?” Short answer is: (drum roll please) I don’t!
I do, however, believe I’m going about this the right way. And I’m betting many tens of millions of dollars a year on this belief. So, the question is: Why am I so confident?
- I’ve been doing this for more than 20 years with a great deal of success. That isn’t a guarantee that I’m right. Luck plays a part in all results. Still, long term success tends to build your confidence.
- A lot of really smart players do it the same way. Bob Nersesian regularly says that the smartest people he knows are professional gamblers. I agree. And most smart, successful video poker players I know are using techniques similar to those I use.
- I have many contacts among casino executives, game manufacturers, gaming lawyers, game designers, mathematicians, and whole bunches of successful gamblers in other disciplines. I’m a sponge for new knowledge. I’m always tweaking what I do. You don’t get good in a vacuum. The more you talk to people in other somewhat related disciplines, the better you understand how things work.
- Other smart gamblers accept me as an expert in video poker. If I was way off base, someone knowledgeable would have probably said why. And I probably would have listened. I do read authors I disagree with. I can often gain something from what they say. Nobody has a monopoly on intelligent strategy and it pays to keep an open mind.
- Going through the process of putting your thoughts into words and letting any and everybody challenge them has a way of making you a lot sharper. People do find errors in my writing sometimes. I am far more grateful that I get to learn something new than I am embarrassed at being found imperfect. I accepted decades ago that I can’t walk on water.
- I’ve been reading and studying gaming strategies for many decades. Bright people tend to get good at what they spend their time doing.
Put this all together and I’m confident in what I say about video poker. I am far less confident in what really happened to Mata Hari, although I know more about her situation than I did a month ago. I likely won’t read another biography of her ever — but who knows? While I enjoyed the novel, becoming a history-professor type of expert on her is not in my plans.
I very much enjoy reading your blog, although I have not yet developed the discipline required to do what you do as well as you do, I do like to master the strategy portions of gambling. Does your software work on and IPad? If not, what product would you recommend for practice on an IPad? Thank you for your time!
WinPoker has an excellent app that works on iPads.
Excellent, thank you!
So, what IS the proper play with 2 pair? Hold the 2 pair? What about the 7,7,A,9,3? Hold the suited cards and go for flush?
When you started with the story of Mata Hari and then said you were going to relate it to video poker, I thought that you were going to talk about casinos identifying winning VP players (spies) and then executing them (barring). The analogy would have been apt. More or less.
Yes two pair is better than one pair in this game — and a 4-card flush is better than a low pair. These are beginner hands (which is okay — everybody is a beginner to start with). There are LOTS of beginner hands. Knowing these hands is good — but it’s just a very small step.
if you seriously don’t know these plays, you have no realistic chance in a casino. It’s time to do some study and practice if you care about the money you’re playing with. If it’s all recreational to you and you have money to burn, knock yourself out!
As someone who has read columns in the past, I am well aware that Mr. Dancer instills the need for players to know the strategy cold and train hard before they even play it in a wager situation. I was a bit perplexed as to the reason a player would put themselves in a situation where they will play a video poker game variant they are not familiar with.
Rereading the part “To keep the mystique going, she regularly fabricated tales — especially to the press.” was the key to understand the motive of this column. No one will know everything about Mata Hari from hearing or reading about one account and no one will know everything about video poker by playing just one variant of a game. The latter would not be an issue if a person is capable of counting all the possible outcomes multiplied by the winning amounts and divided by the draw combinations to get the expected result for each of the 32 decision points and pick out the best one; but I do not believe such person exists!.
I am not proficient in many video poker variants, but I have explored enough to be somewhat aware that
K♥ T♥ 3♥ 7♣ 4♦
3 cards are held (K♥ T♥ 3♥) for 9/6 Double Double Bonus and 7 for 1 Flush Non-Deuces Wild variants
2 cards (K♥ T♥) are held for 6 for 1 variants of Jacks or Better and 3 for 1 Flush Deuces Wild variants
1 card (K♥) is held for 5 for 1 Flush Non-Deuces Wild variants
No cards are held for 2 for 1 Flush Deuces Wild variants
The only time I know where just the pair of Kings are held on K♠ K♥ 7♣ 7♦ 3♠ is on Wheel Poker variant games.
Another situation I learned recently when the pair of Kings is just held is when in Shockwave Mode is triggered during Shockwave Poker.
I don’t see where “this game” is ever defined in the article so I don’t see how you can state the correct play for any of the hands.